Sunday, June 23, 2013

The surface warming slowdown


Surface warming seems to have slowed over the last decade. While denial-ists  celebrate it as a vindication of their stubborn stupidity, its more concerning to me in that there is a possibility of deep ocean energy sink or some other feedback/sink we dont understand. Uncertainty makes planning all the more difficult. Warming is still a grave issue as is ocean acidification, pollution, and food and energy security.



A cooling consensus Jun 20th 2013

The rate of warming of over the past 15 years has been lower than that of the preceding 20 years. There is no serious doubt that our planet continues to heat, but it has heated less than most climate scientists had predicted. ( http://www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica/2013/06/climate-change?fsrc=rss )


Dumb title as there has been no cooling and there is still a complete consensus of warming. Next the Economist also fails to point out that if the Trenberth research is correct - warming could have well accelerated:


A sensitive matter Mar 30th 2013

A study in Geophysical Research Letters by Kevin Trenberth of America’s National Centre for Atmospheric Research and others found that 30% of the ocean warming in the past decade has occurred in the deep ocean (below 700 metres). The study says a substantial amount of global warming is going into the oceans, and the deep oceans are heating up in an unprecedented way. If so, that would also help explain the temperature hiatus.
( http://www.economist.com/news/science-and-technology/21574461-climate-may-be-heating-up-less-response-greenhouse-gas-emissions )


The Study:

Distinctive climate signals in reanalysis of global ocean heat content ( http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/grl.50382/pdf )


The elusive nature of the post-2004 upper ocean warming has exposed uncertainties in the oceans role in the Earth s energy budget and transient climate sensitivity. Here we present the time evolution of the global ocean heat
content for 1958 through 2009 from a new observation-based reanalysis of the ocean. Volcanic eruptions and El Niño events are identified as sharp cooling events punctuating a long-term ocean warming trend, while heating
continues during the recent upper-ocean-warming hiatus, but
the heat is absorbed in the deeper ocean. In the last decade,
about 30% of the warming has occurred below 700 m,
contributing significantly to an acceleration of the warming
trend.
The warming below 700 m remains even when the
Argo observing system is withdrawn although the trends
are reduced. Sensitivity experiments illustrate that surface
wind variability is largely responsible for the changing
ocean heat vertical distribution.


Mercury mercury everywhere.


With all the efforts to shutter some NPPs (nuclear power plants), especially in California fixation on non existent environmental hazards has underscored the arguments.

With about 50 percent of the mercury emissions orginating in coal fired plants, and environmental levels of mercury at or reaching alarming levels in some areas everything should be done to dissuade their use.



Study finds unsafe mercury levels in fish from Delta watershed

Read more here: http://www.sacbee.com/2013/06/02/5464311/study-finds-unsafe-mercury-levels.html#storylink=cpy

The survey adds to the history of high mercury levels in sport fish in the Sacramento region and dovetails with recent research that found consumption of sport fish from certain Delta region streams remains high, despite knowledge of the high mercury levels.

( http://www.sacbee.com/2013/06/02/5464311/study-finds-unsafe-mercury-levels.html )

Read more here: http://www.sacbee.com/2013/06/02/5464311/study-finds-unsafe-mercury-levels.html#storylink=cpy


Florida fish seller fined

Before Pescanova Inc. sold the Chilean sea bass in the United States for about $96,000, the Canadian government rejected the fish for having too much mercury. The U.S. government did not take issue with mercury levels in the fish, according to the U.S. Attorney's office.


( http://www.timesunion.com/business/article/Florida-fish-seller-fined-4608157.php )



Report details high mercury levels in fish in 32 Okla. lakes 

 The Department of Environmental Quality says 32 of Oklahoma's lakes contain fish with mercury levels above those safe for unlimited consumption.

 They recommend no one eat fish caught from these lakes more than twice a month. Women of child-bearing age, pregnant or nursing mothers, and children under 15 years old should be even more cautious.

( http://www.kxii.com/news/headlines/Report-details-high-mercury-levels-in-fish-in-32-Okla-lakes-210514221.html )

Friday, June 21, 2013

Hurricane season expected to be busy, possibly very busy


Around the first week of July a storm in the gulf keeps showing up on the GFS,:


None the less this season is expected to be a very busy one:



Hopefully if it is a busy season, it wont cause many casualties and it will motivate Americans to be more concerned about environmental matters. Unfortunately people seem to become concerned only when extreme conditions occur.


Belief in Global Warming Drops After Cold Winter

 A majority of Americans, or 63 percent, still believe there is solid evidence that global warming is real, according to the latest poll from the National Surveys on Energy and Environment (NSEE). That number is down, however, from 67 percent who said the same in the fall. ( http://news.yahoo.com/belief-global-warming-drops-cold-winter-173643747.html )

Some interesting energy notes :

 

Hurricane effects on oil and natural gas production depend on storm trajectory, strength


 



May Global Temps Third Warmest on Record



The average global temperature for May 2013 tied with 1998 and 2005 as the third warmest May since record keeping began in 1880. It also marked the 37th consecutive May and 339th consecutive month, or more than 28 years, with a global temperature above the 20th-century average. ( http://www.climate.gov/news-features/featured-images/may-global-temps-third-warmest-record )


May 2005:

Enviromental failures and starting up again.

Well I am so irritated with environmental progress I am going to start posting again a bit. I also need to do some catching up. Ive been posting some over at atomic insights so I am going to move some of the info there I posted on and expand it.

Hopefully I can make a bit more sense of where we are now and are expecting to go in these matters if only for myself.

First off:

US emissions are going to jump around 2.5 – 3 % in the US this year (2013) as a result of more coal use / much higher natural gas prices. The Obama administration appears on the verge of a natural gas push.


It was a very bad time to shutter ANY nuclear power.


Obama to Renew Emissions Push


In the first quarter of the year, coal use for power generation jumped almost 13% while natural-gas use for power generation fell 8%, 

In March, natural-gas prices reached $3.95 per million British thermal units, or 78% higher than March 2012,
 
Ms. Zichal said the White House will announce in a matter of weeks a climate package that will focus on power plants, energy efficiency and renewable energy. (
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323836504578553973227234246.html )
With all the renewable installation (wind turbine installation will outpace new NG) we will still INCREASE GGs this year.\


 US coal exports hit record levels:


Coal exports from the United States in March 2013 totaled 13.6 million short tons, nearly 0.9 million short tons above the previous monthly export peak in June 2012. EIA is projecting a third straight year of more than 100 million short tons of coal exports in 2013, following annual exports in 2011 of 107.3 million short tons and record annual exports in 2012 of 125.7 million short tons. 

Increased Asian demand for coal contributed to the record level of coal exports from the United States in March. Of the record export tonnage, 6.3 million short tons were steam coal and 7.4 million short tons were metallurgical coal. ( http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=11751 )





Wednesday, May 15, 2013

Solar Activity

More X class flares likely.

After not producing any X-class eruptions all year, the Sun has roared to life this week, producing its fourth X-class solar flare of the week on Tuesday.
Tuesday's flare came from the same region as the previous X-class flares this week, an active sunspot region known as AR1748. Prior to this week the sunspot region did not even have a name and was difficult to see, but as the region continues to rotate towards Earth, scientists will be able to observe it more clearly. 
( http://www.natureworldnews.com/articles/1935/20130515/sun-erupts-4th-x-class-solar-flare-week.htm )




NOAA Scales Activity

Range 1 (minor) to 5 (extreme)
NOAA Scale
Geomagnetic Storms *
Solar Radiation Storms
Previous 24 hour S-scale value
Current S-scale value
Radio Blackouts
Previous 24 hour R-scale value





Satellite Environment Plot

3-day Satellite Environment graph and image map.